UCLA +14 1.1% Free Pick

USC dominated Cal last week, while UCLA ran into Utah and lost 45-3, basically eliminating all the momentum UCLA had in their 3 game winning streak, but that sets us up for value this week.  UCLA was -4 TO margin in that game, and we hope they got that out of their system. Both of these teams have had turnover issues, USC has had 12 TO’s in 5 home games, while UCLA has had 12 TO’S IN 5 road games.  However, UCLA has had just 4 total turnovers in their 4 games against teams not in the TOP 75 in rushing defense. USC ranks 84th in ypc defense, and Joshua Kelley went wild a year ago for 289 yards. I think UCLA could have another monster day on the ground.

 

USC has given up 190+ yards 5 times this season and have gone 3-2, but their wins are by 8, 7, and 4.  I think UCLA sticks in this game with their running game. USC has benefited in their last two games from playing backup QB’s and I think that also inflates the line here. I don’t really expect Clay Helton to be back, and there is a monster coaching advantage on the UCLA sideline compared to USC.  I think UCLA wins the turnover battle is able to run the ball and has a shot to win the game. This should be a one possession game.


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