Texas +6 2.2% play
Texas has faced a tougher schedule, and are still alive to get to the Big 12 Championship. They need Baylor to lose out and for Iowa State to trip up once. It’s highly unlikely with Baylor facing Kansas next week, but Baylor has played in a lot of tight games this season. Here they face a Texas team they nearly beat last year, which should have Texas attention, but that all happened with Sam Ehlinger getting hurt in the first quarter. Texas can throw the ball with Ehlinger as they rank 28th in QB rating. Baylor’s defense has been great, but against the 3 top 50 passing offenses they have faced they have gotten shredded. Iowa State threw for 342 yards, Texas Tech threw for 362 yards in a 3 point loss in OT, and Oklahoma just threw for 297 yards. This defense was on the field a ton in the second half against Oklahoma for a total of 96 plays in all. How much do they have left after Gameday, and the 28-3 blown loss at home ruining a great opportunity to sneak into the college football playoff.
Texas defensive numbers are way off due to the injuries they have had this year. Texas is now healthy and it showed the last two weeks holding Kansas State to 17 offensive points, and Iowa State to 23 points on the road. Baylor really has not blown teams out this year and when they do get up in games the back door is wide open. They blew two 20+ leads at home this year against teams with capable QB’s. I think Texas comes out in no huddle in this game and tries to take it to Baylor early. Texas also has a major advantage on third downs in this game on offense and defense they are the far better team against a tougher schedule. Texas offense will be tested without their top WR Colin Johnson, but they are deep at the position, and an elite QB is typically able to play well no matter who his receivers are.
I always like to touch on some of the things most people don’t look at. Special teams is a big key here as Baylor ranks 89th in special teams, and their punter is not good and wildly inconsistent. TO margin is another key, and Baylor has had issues of late with 4 of their last 5 games resulting in 2 or more TO’s lost, and 2 of those they had 3 TO’s. Well, Texas has had only 4 games dating back to last season where they have had 2 or more TO’s. They have just 12 total turnovers lost this season.
