I like Iowa in this spot at home where they have played very well of late. Nebraska has all the pressure in the world with a shot to get to the Big Ten title game, but I don't see it happening. Tommy Armstrong is not 100%, but he will make the start and a hamstring injury really hinders a dynamic running QB in a lot of ways. Even if he is 100% at the start the risk for re-injury is very high. If he does not injure it again I expect him to struggle either way as his home away splits are completely different. He's got a QB ratings of more than 50 points higher at home, and he's 16% more accurate at home. On the road he's got 2 TD's to 5 interceptions and that's where I think Iowa wins this game.
Last year they were happy to force Nebraska into obvious passing downs and drop guys in coverage which led to 4 interceptions. Now Nebraska has cleaned up the turnover issues from a year ago, but they still average 2 per game on the road and Iowa has lost just 3 turnovers in 6 games at home. I'm confident to say that they should win the TO battle and that flips things to the running game for both teams, because none of this matters if a team is not able to run and stop the run.
Actually looking at everything Iowa should have the better chance to establish the running game. For one they are at home, and they have two running backs in Akrum Wadley and Leshun Daniels who are getting better as the year progresses behind a very good offensive line. Overall the statistical numbers for both teams running the ball and stopping the run are similar, but here is what the difference will be. Nebraska has allowed 4.83 yards per carry on the road. Their running game relies heavily on Tommy Armstrong running the ball. He has approximately 25% of the runs this year and 8 TD's more than #1 RB Terrel Newby. Second, their next RB back up is Devine Ozigbo and he's questionable for this game. I look for the Hawkeyes to squeak out of this game with a TD victory.
