San Diego State -115 3% Play
A massive game for the Mountain West Division. The winner is definitely in the driver seat. San Diego State is off a weird loss to Nevada, but they did outgain Nevada by around 100 yards in that game, but that's giving us value here. This line had SD State as a dog and then they went back to a 1 point favorite. I'd rather just take them on the money line. Rocky Long is 8-4-1 ATS the last 10 years as a dog at home.
San Diego State sports an elite defense, and the three times they faced an offense with a top 30 unit of some kind they are 3-0 winning by an average of 9.33ppg, and 2 of those 3 games were on the road and they are home here. Fresno State's offense has strong numbers, but they are 0-3 against Top 70 defenses with a losing margin of 10ppg, 2 of those 3 were also on the road like they are here.
A closer look at those games and I believe Colorado State or Wyoming who both have a strong rushing attack like Fresno are the most comparable units. San Diego State held Colorado State to a season low 10 points in their own building as they won 24-10. Against Wyoming they held them scoreless in 2 of the 4 quarters and held them to 22 points in a 26-22 win. That win could have been larger had San Diego State not have to settle for a couple of field goals. Fresno STate's red zone defense has not been the same this year allowing TD's on 66% of opponent posessions.
San Diego State had just 64 yards rushing last year in this game on the road, but that was against a Fresno defense that ranked 26th vs. the run. This year they rank 76th vs. the run, and they have had issues stopping the pass as well. San Diego State may not wow you with their offensive #'s, but they do not turn the ball over. Only 5 turnovers all eyar long as they are +10 TO margin. Fresno State ranks 16th in TO margin, but they had 7 TO'S in their 4 road games. They also had 6 TO's in their 3 games vs. TOP 70 defenses. San Diego State clearly a bit better on defense than the other 3, and I would assume win the turnover battle.
San Diego State should also win the special teams battle. They rank 11th in special teams efficiency compared to Fresno State's 117th ranking.
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