Alabama -20 3.3% play
Alabama has to be impressive from here on out. They have everything left to play for after the LSU win, and I really wonder what would have happened if Tua did not fumble in the red zone on that first drive, which changed all the momentum in the game against LSU. Tua shook the rust off and had a great game, and I don't see Alabama taking their foot off the gas in this one. 20 points is a lot on the road for Alabama to lay, but Miss State is a team trending in the other direction. They have already lost to LSU by 23, A&M by 19, and Auburn by 33. Alabama has won on the road this year in SEC by 19 at A&M, and South Carolina by 24 and last year they won on the road in the SEC By 55, 34, and 37 points.
I think we are getting a cheap price here, because everyone thinks Alabama and that locker room thinks there season is over or they are going to have a hangover, but that is clearly in the line. Obviously Miss State is off a bye here, and that's concerning as they need 2 wins in their next 3 games to get to a bowl, but that win won't come here. They lost 24-0 last year in this game. Miss State at the time had the best defense to finish last year 1st in yards per play allowed, 5th vs. the run, and 3rd vs. the pass, and top 30 in TO margin. This year they are far worse. 103rd in ypp defense, 92nd vs the run, 86th vs. the pass, 69th in TO margin 79th in special teams. I think Alabama makes a statement, and I believe they are still a top 4 team. My top 4 is Clemson, Ohio State, LSU, Alabama, and I think that is what we will see in the end.
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