Iowa State +14.5 3.3% play
Both of these teams were off a bye and Oklahoma was hosting Iowa State in 2017 and Iowa State pulled the 38-31 upset. Actually, Oklahoma had a couple extra days to prepare for that game. I really like Matt Campbell as a HC and I don’t think he gets enough credit here, while he has kept this toa 10 pt game or less each of the last 3 years. Iowa State is clearly closing the gap in my opinion. Yes, Oklahoma has gotten better on defense, but Iowa State compared to last year has gotten better on offense and defense against tougher competition. The biggest difference for Iowa State has been the play of the offensive line. They now have a rushing attack that at least can create some balance, and they rank top 25 in sack % allowed, power success, and havoc rate allowed. This should really help them against Oklahoama whose defensive strength is their pass rush. If Oklahoma can’t get to Purdy they are going to put up points.
Iowa State’s defense has better #’s this year so far, and they are balanced against the run and pass. Jalen Hurts despite putting up ridiculous #’s this year is still what I consider to be more of a one dimensional QB. I hate saying that, because I really like Jalen’s character, but the fact of the matter is he got away with so many questionable decisions in that Kansas State game. He nearly cost them the Texas game with his play in the red zone. Oklahoma’s offense ranks #1 across the board, but they have yet to play a Top 70 defense. 99.5 on average from a yards per play allowed perspective. Iowa State’s defense is very tricky, and they are led by excellent LB’s. I still think Jalen gets his 100+ rushing yards, but I think Iowa State can hold their own in the red zone much like Texas did which kept Texas in that game despite playing poorly. This Iowa State is built to stop this type of offense, and they do it by confusing you and forcing you into TO’s. Oklahoma’s defense as improved as they have been are coming off a very bad game against Kansas State, and they have forced just 6 turnovers all year. I think the secondary is still very weak, and we might see it get lit up on Saturday.
