Northwestern +10.5 3.3% play

Indiana is off back to back road wins, and have gotten to 6 wins and bowl eligibility, but honestly what have they proven to allow them to be a double digit favorite here?  Their last 3 conference games have beena gaisnt Maryland, Nebraska, and Michigan State, and their defense has not played particularly well in any of those games against teams that really have struggled moving the ball this year.  Michigan State put up 40 points and 445 yards on Indiana.  Northwestern gets Hunter Johnson back at QB here, after he took some time away. I don't know if he makes the start, but he definitely gets in the game.  

Northwestern is a team that fights hard and doesn't give up.  Last week they really got off to a slow start which they can't afford to happen again here.  I think the offense has their best day in many weeks, and Pat Fitzgerald has a shot to win this game outright.  He is 6-1 vs. Indiana over his career.  Northwestern has faced one of the country's toughest schedules with Iowa, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Michigan State on the schedule.  They had to start a third string QB for 3 of those games, and I think we are getting line value here, because Northwestern's defense has played extremely well.

These two teams have two common opponents Michigan State, and Ohio STate.  Northwestern was -74 yards vs. Michigan State, Indiana was -87.  Northwestern was -281 yards vs. Ohio State, and Indiana -263.  Both teams have been nearly identical in their recruiting, and I just think Indiana has been fortunate with their schedule and when they faced certain teams.  Expecting a close game here regardless. 

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