NC State +7.5 4.4% play / NC State +250 1% bonus

Both teams off a bye, and both of these head coaches are admired by many, but lets take a look at how they have done head to head dating back to their MAC days.  Dave Doeren the NC State coach is 3-2 against Dave Clawson, with the two losses coming in 2017, and 2018, so I'm sure this team is fully motivated to change that here in 2019.  Before that Dave Doeren beat Wake Forest in 2015 & 2016 by 18, and 17 points, and both of those situations he was off a bye.  He also has a win by the score of 45-14 when at Northern Illinois.  Dave Clawson's wins were 30-24, and 27-23, and he will ahve to win by more here.  In the 30-24 win, Wake was a 3 point favorite, but were lucky to win as NC Sate outgained them by 168 yards, and last year NC State led 23-13 in the 4th quarter before losing the game and were only outgained by 14 yards.  Dave Doeren 7-3 straight up and 8-2 ATS off a bye at NC State including 3-0 ATS as a dog and 2-0 ATS vs. Wake Forest.  Dave Clawson is 0-5 at Wake Forest off a bye 1-4 straight up and his losses have come by -14 points per game ATS, while Doeren has won by 10.8 points ATS.  Doeren's 3 losses came to 2 National Champions.  Clemson last year, and Florida State in 2013, and an 11 win Notre Dame team in 2017.  It's clear to me that Doeren is the better coach.

Talent wise, NC State just brought in two of their best recruiting classes ranking 24th, and 31 the last two years compare that with Wake who ranks 53rd, and 64.  NC State is making a switch to a 4* QB in Devin LEary who came into the Boston College game and threw 249 ayrds 3 TD's.  Wake Forest can be had in the passing game as they rank 104th in opposing QB rating, and struggle to get pressure ranking 66th in sack %.  They also lost their top defensive player for the season in LB Justin Strnad who was their leading tackler.  That should hur them in their run defense.

NC State is a very good defense ranking 35th in yards per play allowed.  To me they really have only had 1 off game, and that was against Boston College who ran wild on them, before that they were only allowing 67 yards rushing a game. I think NC State gets back to that here, and Wake Forest will face a pass rush for the first time.  They rank 9th in protectino, but the average opponent sack % they have faced is 83.  NC State ranks 24th, and Wake is just geting Jamie Newman back which I expect some rust if he does start.  I just don't see Wake Forest getting margin here, and I think we could see NC STate who needs this game more pulling the outright upset.  This would not shock me at all, as Wake Forest has been living on the edge a few times to teams they were favored over this season.  

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