Georgia Southern +14.5 2.2% play
I think we have value here with Georgia Southern, as 68% of the tickets are on App State, but there are a couple situations to consider. First of all the total has crashed due to the fact that we are looking at rain, and 20mph sustained winds, with gusts of 50mph for tonights game. The temperatures are going to drop and we may even see some snow. The value on this many points really is worth taking when you consider that both teams will be leaning heavily on the run game. They already lean heavy on the run, with App State 62% of runs, and Georgia Southern 81%.
Georgia Southern upset App State last year, and they have not been having a great year, but 2 of their 3 losses, are two undefeated Power 5 teams in Minnesota and LSU, and they lost by only 3 at Minnesota. Georgia Southern has gotten better on defense compared to last year, and their biggest strength comes in run defense, something they are going to be defending a lot in this game. They rank 28th in rushing ypc, and held both MInnesota and LSU in check. Minnesota just 1.94 ypc on 48 carries, and LSU just 3.7ypc on 33 carries. App State's rushing offense ranks 11th, but that has come against an average opponent run defense ranking 85.8. They are typically helped by their QB, and that is the weakness of this Georgia Southern defense, but how much can they take advantage of that here tonight given the conditions?
App State's run defense ranks 44th, but they were 21st last year, against similar strength of schedule. NOw they have played better of late, but they gave up 277 yards in this game last year. QB Shai Werts ran for 129 yards last year in this game. Werts has missed 2 games this year, which has made GEorgia Southern's statistical profile worse than it seems. Thus giving us value. The Georgia Southern rushing attack has really gotten going the last 4 games rushing for over 300 in 3 of them, and that has come with wins. In last year's game explosive runs helped them win the game, and I think they can have more success since they run the triple option here tonight. They rank 9th in explosive runs, and are going up against App State's defense that ranks 50th in explosive runs allowed. App State also has an explosive rushing offense, but again I think they have that level of success due to the fact that they are balanced on offense, and I don't know if they can be here tonight. App State rnaks 29th in explosive runs, but Georgia Southern inside the top 20 ranking 16th in explosive runs allowed.
This is a huge rivalry game, and the conditions favor the under and naturally the dog. I like the dog here, and they have for hte most part taken care of the football. Ranked in the top 50 in TO margin. Expect a very tight game.
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