Tennnessee +4.5 2.2% play
I honestly don't agree with the line move here, but I'll take the extra value as I look at these two teams and see two very similar teams. The defenses are nearly identical when we look at the offenses faced. Tennessee ranks 65th, but getting better against an average opponent offense ranking 44.8, compared to South Carolina's 59th ranking against an average opponent ranking 45.8. They have nearly identical rush defenses against nearly identical opponent rushing offenses. While Tennessee is a little worse in opposing QB rating defense, they make up for it with their 14th ranked sack %, and playing at home should make it an even battle.
Now Tennessee is starting another freshman QB in JT Shrout it sounds like, but Jarret Guarantano is still available. It sounds like turnovers are mostly the conerning part for this team and that's the reason for the move. I see both teams trying to establish the run here, leading to quicker game, and the points more valuable for the home team.
76% of the money is on South Carolina and I am fine being on the flip side here as I think Tennessee could win this game outright. How much does South Carolina have left? Back to back games against Top 10 teams, and now back on the road for the second time in 3 weeks.
Subscribe on iTunes