Syracuse +4 2.2% play
Do you want to bet on a team that blew a 23 point lead, and committed 15 penalties in their last road game. I have been high on Pitt all year, and have profited with them as they have gone 4-2 ATS, and now off a bye it's time to sell high on this team that is still growing in their new offense. They go up against a Syracuse team who has a very good home field advantage, and they have an extra day to prepare for this game.
61% of the money is on Pitt in this game, and I've heard almost everyone in the media calling for Pitt to win big, and many are pointing out Syracuse's offensive line which has played poorly. I can't argue with that, and going up against Pitt's defensive line which has a ton of sacks, and among the leaders in havoc rate. However, Syracuse's defensive line also has some elite players, and I think their defense is getting disrespected here being a 4 point home dog I think there is a ton of value for a defense that is under rated. Syracuse has given up some big point totals this year, against Maryland, Clemson, Western Michigan and all 3 of those offenses have something in common. They can run the hell out of the ball ranking 7th, 10th, and 17th in yards per carry. Pitt is not that type of offense under Mark Whipple. They rank 112th in ypc offense, the other 3 teams Syracuse faced scored 3, 0, and 16 points. NC State's offense is very close to what Pitt offers, and Syracuse very impressively held them to 16 points on the road last week. I can see another defensive struggle as Pitt gets into third and longs, and Syracuse also can bring havoc witha 20.4% havoc rate that typically only gets better at home.
Syracuse's offense has to step up in this game, and to be honest they can only look better. Looking at Syracuse's offense they are almost identical to Duke's offense that came back against Pitt. Syracuse actually has a far better QB Rating which is where you need to attack this PItt defense. The fact that Duke had 6 TO's in the game and only lost by 3 has to say something about this Pitt team. You may expect a better performance from Narduzzi and Pitt out of the bye? Well over the last 3 years they have gone just 1-2, and for a defensive minded coach you'd think the defense would play better off the bye, but they gave up 45, 34, and 39 points in those situations. IT's clear this defense was clicking until the 2nd half of the Duke game, and then they went into the bye for me at the wrong time.
Syracuse also has advantages in special teams ranking 30th in the nation compared to Pitt's 105th ranking. This should play a huge factor in tonight's game. I often feel the special teams advantage's only increase when you are at home. At the end of the day I don't think much separates Duke and Syracuse and Pitt and NC State, which are both these last two team opponents. Both games were inside a posession and I see the sme thing happening here.
