Florida State +1.5 4.4%
This is just the second time in the last 27 meetings that Florida State is an under dog to Wake Forest. The obvious reason is the talent gap and nothing has changed the Wake Forest program has averaged a national recruiting ranked #62 over the last 3 years compared to Florida State’s #10 ranking. The biggest question mark I have for Florida State is their coaching staff. Can they take advantage of Wake Forest’s obvious weaknesses and shut this offense down?
For Florida State, their 3 losses came against top defenses in Boise STate ranking 42nd in yards per play defense against an average Opp ranking 68th (similar to Wake’s opponent ranking), Clemson #5, and Virginia #10. Florida State’s offense should be able to move the ball on the ground and through the air as Wake ranks 97th in yards per play allowed, and that’s against an average offense ranking 65th, which is very similar to Boise strength of schedule, but Wake ranks far worse. FSU was able to score in the 30’s on a good Boise team.
Now Wake Forest offense has looked great, but a deeper look and we see they haven’t played a defense with a pulse. They have played just 1 team in the top 100 in pass defense, which was North Carolina, a defense that has similar stats to Florida State, but still FSU’s numbers are bette, and more balanced. Wake only managed 24 points in that game, and that was with a healthy Jamie Newman who rushed for 78 yards and 2 TD’s. I like Sam Hartman a lot and I think he’s an NFL QB someday, but he’s not mobile like Newman. The average opponent pass defense for Wake Forest is 96.2.
At the end of the day FSU has faced a tougher schedule with an opponent average YPP differentiation of +.73, and they have earned a +0.1 YPP differential. Their defense has been getting better despite what last week’s performance against a determined Clemson team might tell you. Wake Forest’s average opponent YPP differential is -0.4, which means they have been playing bad opponents, and they haven’t even managed a positive YPP differential yet they are 6-1. We faded Wake Forest last week, and I’m doing it again here.
