Air Force -3 1.1% Free Play
We are fading the public dog Fresno State, who has been kind to bettors the last two seasons winning 20 games ATS. We are seeing over 60% of the best coming in on the dog here, and the line has moved from 3.5 to 3. Over the last 10 seasons there been just 6 teams to win 19+ ATS in 2 seasons, and the third season they have gone 41-63 ATS, just 39.8% ATS. I’m looking for situations to fade Fresno, and I think we are getting good value with Air Force.
This is not the same Fresno State defense they rank 51st vs. the run, but they have played an average rushing offense ranking 84.67 in YPC, and they rank 105th in defensive power success rate. There are also two other reasons I feel that we are getting value. Air Force just lost at Navy, and Fresno is off a bye with extra time to prepare for the option. Well Air Force has done really well following a loss against Navy 3-1 over the last 8 years. Fresno State despite being in Air Force’s conference do not meet often. In fact they haven’t faced each other since 2016. The DC Bert Watts is in his second year at Fresno, and was the DC For some very bad defenses @ UC Davis. I really don’t know how they can prepare for the option based on all the information we have, and Air Force does have the capability with Hammond to throw the ball as well.
Fresno State’s defense has taken a step back this year, but so has their offense. They ranked 8th in QB rating last year, but so far this season they rank 85th. Air Force’s defense I feel is a bit under rated. They are solid in the trenches, and if they can just not turn the ball over they should win the game by double digits, but like I said when I played Navy last week that has not been the case. Air Force has been unlucky however with a 18% fumble recovery % one of the lowest in the country. That can only turn around. Air Force also has a major edge in special teams ranking 13th in efficiency compared to 101st for Fresno.
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