Florida +2.5 3.3% play
I was waiting for a 3, and you may be able to continue to wait, as it's -115, to take Auburn -2.5, but the books seem very hesitant to push this to 3 despite having 64% of the money on Auburn, and you can actually take Florida at +102 odds at Pinnacle, one of the sharper books out there. I think Florida pulls the upset.
Auburn comes into this game 5-0 ATS, and 71% of tickets are on Auburn. This gives us line value as many are talking about how impressive they have been against a tough schedule. I would question that because Texas A&M almost lost to Arkansas last week, a team that lost at home to San Jose State. Miss State is down this year as well so that beat down last week was not surprising, and Auburn got lucky beating Oregon, a team that just barely got by Stanford a week ago 21-6, a Stanford team that got blown out by multiple teams already this season. The stats back it up, as Florida has actually faced tougher defenses on average 51 ypp, compared to Auburn’s 66.4, and their offensive YPP ranks 21st, to Auburn’s 35th. The QB play for Florida has been better and I like Trask’s ability and decision making I think he’s an upgrade over Feleipe Franks.
The biggest story in this game supposedly is Florida’s offensive line which is breaking in 4 new starters against this talented Auburn defensive line, but I would argue, and have to think Florida’s defensive line feels disrespected here. They get to go up against a freshman QB at home, they sport the nation’s #2 sack %, and have a 25% havoc rate, and Bo Nix really hasn’t been scary throwing the ball to date. The key for Florida is going to be stopping the Auburn’s running game, and they have yet to allow a 100 yard game with the exception of the road game at Kentucky. Here they’re home, and getting some defensive starters back. Auburn just 3-13 when they are held under 130 yards rushing, and while they rank 18th in YPC average run defense they have faced ranks 80.2, and here they face the 22nd ranked run defense. To go along with that is the 23rd ranked passing defense, and they can leave their corners on an island against this Auburn offense while committing extra bodies to the run.
Dan Mullen has had great success against Auburn in his career. Going 2-2 straight up, and 3-1 ATS, as all 4 meetings when he was at Miss State he was an underdog. The two times he beat Malzahn he was less than a FG Dog like he is in this game. At the end of the day I think the strength of schedule that Auburn has faced has been blown out of proportion. Auburn went 1-3 on the road last year, and the last 3 years when they are facing a defense that can stop the run/pass they are 0-7, losing by a margin of 14 points per game, while averaging just 12.5 points per game. Night game here, and Florida is being disrespected as a small dog I think they force Nix into some costly mistakes and hold up against the run and find a way to win this game.
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