East Carolina +12 2.2% play
I think there is value in the under here as well and East Carolina is definitely corelated with the under so if you wanted to parlay the two there is definite value, but I'm going to stick to East Carolina +12 for the game.
Temple might be satisfied after beating another Power 5 team, and their old coach in an emotional beat down of Georgia Tech 24-2, but that final was misleading, which I covered on my podcast this week. This is a tough situation to be laying double digits when your offense really hasn't impressed this season going on the road on a very short week to face a team, that is breaking out new jerseys tonight, they got a new coach, and they'll be on ESPN.
Statistically these two don't differ much althought Temple is +.6 ypp differential to East Carolina's -1.5, but East Carolina opponents were -.3 compared to Temple's -1.2 YPP differential. I think we are getting value here with East Carolina who has some momentum going into this game off 2 straight wins. I don't care who they are against that is big for a team trying to turn around a program with a new coaching staff. Getting buy in from the players is extremely important, and all of a sudden if they pull this game off they are sitting at 4-2 and a possible bowl game. Mike Houston and his staff are excellent coaches, and I backed them earlier in the season against NC State +17.5, which was dissapointing, but they were in that game early, and just wore down.
I don't see East Carolina wearing down here as they will be at home here, and the kickoff temperature is supposed to be 95 degrees, and I think that favors the home team playing a team from PA. East Carolina also shortens the game more than anyone as they rank 130th in plays per game, it's clearly what East Carolina wants to do. Run the ball, and play defense, and I think they can hang in there against a team coming off an emotional win against their former coach then traveling on short rest. I think the energy and effort will be on the side of the Pirates here. Also worth noting is Temple's QB Anthony Russo has not been good on the road. In 8 road starts he has 10 TD's and 10 INT's. Temple's run defense is a bit questinoable in my opinion they rank 43rd, but Buffalo ran 217 yards in their last road game. Buffalo definitely better up front, and have more talent at RB, but I believe East Carolina has a better QB, and Holton Ahlers broke a 53 yard run in this game last year.
