Buffalo +14.5 4.4% POD

There is really good value here on Buffalo who lost last week as a road favorite (buy low), and fading Temple who won at home as a home dog (sell high).  At this point we don't know much about Temple, and that game against Maryland (over rated) could have went either way, but they stopped Maryland twice at the goal line, and their QB Anthony Russo threw another pick, but should have thrown two.  This is a sandwhich game for Temple too as they have Georgia Tech on deck.  Georgia Tech's Head Coach was the Temple coach last year.  So while Temple players remember losing to Buffalo last year some might have their eye on Georgia Tech the following week. 

Rod Carey is a fabulous coach, and comes over from Northern Illinois, who beat Buffalo and HC Lance Leipold in the MAC Championship game a year ago by 1 point, and in 2018 they beat Buffalo 14-13.  Buffalo blew a 29-10 lead in the MAC Championship.  

Buffalo is strong in the trenches, and Carey has stated it's the best OL and DL they have faced.  There are questions at QB for Buffalo who is starting a freshman, but I think he plays better here at home, and I think the running game continues to have success.  The OL returns 4 of 5 guys, and this is a group that ran the ball for 183 yards at Penn State, and led at the half before Penn State dominated the second half when they started throwing the ball.  I don't know if Carey trusts Russo to take advantage of Buffalo's weakness in the secondary.  Russo is very turnover prone, and I think he might throw 2 interceptions here today setting up Buffalo to have a shot at the upset.