Pitt covered, and had a chance to tie and win the game against Penn State on the road last week, but they couldn't get the job done, but they did out gain Penn State, and QB Pickett had another great game under this new offense with Mark Whipple. Pitt was a 17 point dog on the road, which would make them an 11 point dog at home to Penn State, which is the same line here. There is no way UCF has as much talent as Penn State right now, and I think this line is inflated.

UCF has been impressive, and they beat a beat up Stanford team last week in impressive fashion. They beat Pitt last year in impressive fashion at home. However, they had an extra day of rest in that game, and it was their first game against a P5 opponent. Here they just got done cruising against Stanford and everyone is complimenting how great they are. The true freshman QB Gabriel is the next Tua Tagovailoa. This is Gabriel's first road start, and he's facing a good defense in Pitt who ranks 15th in sack % and they haven't been giving up any explosive plays. That's very different than last year when Pitt was 102nd in explosive play defense. They also were a run first team, and here they are much more balance, and the passing game is the strength of the team under new OC Mark Whipple. This Pitt team has weapons, and they have controlled the pace of play in all of their games. Even in their loss to Virginia earlier this year that game was much closer than the final showed. Call me crazy, but I think Pitt can pull the upset here.