Houston +5 2.2% play
First of all Houston was a 7.5 point favorite last year, and won 48-17 despite losing D'eriq King early in that game. The year before King lost at Tulane despite 141 yards rushing on 10 carries. I think Houston is focused for this game, the fact that they are looking at 1-3 if they lose is a scary thought, and I think Tulane is getting a bit too much love. At the end of the day Houston still has better players. The last 4 year recruiting rankings prove that as Houston's average recruiting over that time is 59.5 in the country compared to Tulane's 91.25 out of 130 teams.
Houston lost quite a bit on the defensive side of the ball, but they return 91% of their offense, and I liked what I saw from King so far this season considering he played two top 20 teams in Washington State and Oklahoma. I also think it's a tough situation for Tulane on just 5 days rest. Home favorites on 5 days of rest playing a conference opponent are just 7-16-3 ATS since 1985. Tulane has benefited thus far from special teams and turnovers, but that was not a strength for this team last year where they ranked 73rd, and 75th. They have also averaged 9 penalties per game this season, while Houston comes in at 6. To me this game is going to be all about who can run the ball more efficiently, and my money is on Houston.
Houston has out gained Tulane each of the last two seasons on the ground with King at QB. I think their are sharps out there who feel this will change, but really Houston's defensive stats are skewed based on their opponents of Oklahoma and Washington State, two top 10 offenses in the country. Houston was very good against the run the last two games allowing well under 3 yards per carry in each game. Tulane's run defense has been more impressive, but they had good run defensive stats last year and Houston put up 298 yards. I understand that Dana Holgorsen is bringing a different offense here, but he has always leaned more on the run in this offense, and so far he's running the ball 60% of hte time. Houston has also been able to run the ball against every opponent this year with over 200 yards rushing in each game and over 5ypc in each game.
