Marshall +13 2.2% play
I still like this at 12 or 12.5. 13's are starting to pop, and I'm grabbing it, but expect more books to go to 13 at some point.
I think we are getting some line value here with Marshall after Boise is sky high after a come from behind win at Florida State which saw their offense run 107 plays. The offense looked great, but they still averaged less than 6 yards per play on a gassed Florida State defense. Confidence is sky high with true freshman Hank Bachmeier after he threw the ball 51 times for 407 yards 1 TD and 1 INT on the road against an ACC defense, but sometimes too much confidence is a bad thing. Boise State just 12-20-1 ATS the last 5 years on the turf, and 11-21 ATS as a home favorite under Harsin. Doc Holliday is the better coach, and is 11-4 ATS as a dog, and 5-0 in bowl games. I believe these Marshall team is treating this like a bowl game. They are clearly more excited about facing Boise in a Friday night spotlight game than Boise is. Many players calling this a measuring stick game, and a game that you get excited for.
The key of the game is to stop the run and put the pressure on the true freshman QB. The Marshall defense has a 15-game streak without allowing an individual 100-yard rusher. The defense also held up pretty good on the road last year allowing opponents to rush for just 3.2 yards per carry. Marshall wants to start fast, and I think they can. Boise State trailed Florida State 31-13 after the first 12 drives where they gave up 11.5 yards per play while they had just 5.3. On the flip side Boise secondary can be thrown on, and Marshall has an experienced offensive line with 111 career starts led by LT Levi Brown. They averaged 5.23 yards per carry on the road a season ago.
I have to be honest, this game is probably a spread of 6.5 if Florida State was in shape and held onto their 31-13 lead. However, we all know what happened, and you have to give Boise credit, but I think Marshall has a better coach than Florida State. I think this game will be a battle, and I would not be shocked to see Marshall pull an upset. After all this was supposed to be the year Boise took a step back. They lost a 4 year starter at QB, their top 2 WR, and top RB. I just think there were too many weird factors with Florida State, and enough opportunity for the Seminoles to not be prepared. Sometimes when games get moved, and you are in your home state it's not a good thing, and it's not like that Stadium was packed in the second half when Boise made their come back.
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