Boston College +120 3% ML Dog play
Some of Boston College's offensive #'s are a bit off, because of the injuries they sustained with their QB Anthony Brown, and star RB AJ Dillon. Two things I Looked at in this game, were health, and what AJ Dillon did against good run defenses. BC is as healthy as they have been all season, while Boise State is missing players on both sides, no significant names, but they do have injuries. Dillon ran for over 100 yards in his 3 games vs. top 50 run defenses, and was impressive vs. Temple, Miami, and Florida State. Boise State is a one dimensional defense. They can stop the run, but they can't stop the pass ranking 86th. However, with high winds and rain that should help Boise State, but at the end of the day I think it hurts them more, because.
They rely heavily on the arm of Brett Rypien. Here he goes up against 30th ranked pass defense, and when I look at BC's defense they are stout and balanced at each level. Ranking 33rd in run defense as well. Boise State averaged just 21.4 points per game when facing a top defense and they played all 5 of those opponents at home - San Diego State, BYU, Fresno 2x, and Utah State. They lost 2 of those games, and on average those teams ranked 30.2 in run defense (71.2 opponent run offense average), 27.4 in pass defense (65.6 opponent QB rating). BC got it done against a tougher schedule featuring 9 Power 5 opponents.
I think this game means more to BC when you look at Steve Adazio he needs to justify that contract they gave him. They lost their last 3 SU & ATS which is a good situation because it gives us line value. Since 2005, bowl teams who lost their last 3 SU & ATS to finish the season are 8-5-1 ATS in their bowl game. Boise State, finished the season losing in the Championship game on their home turf, and had a similar situation back in 2016 when they were big favorites and had a very big clunker in the bowl game. I'm really not a big Brian Harson fan, and I think the coaching edge is on BC's side along with special teams advantage. BC wins outright.
Subscribe on iTunes