Texas a home favorite under Tom Herman is 7-13 ATS, while Matt Campbell and Iowa State are 16-6 ATS as a dog. Herman, easily has to be distracted with the accusations from form colleague Zac Smith saying he cheated on his wife and right now the injuries are just too much to overcome for Texas, as they will now be without their second WR, and their secondary has had a ton of losses. Brock Purdy, is a difference maker for Iowa State at QB. With Purdy, Iowa State ranks 33rd in the nation in offense, but without him they ranked 81st.

Looking at all the numbers, Iowa State is the better offense, has the better defense, their pass defense and run defense are clearly better, and they also have the ability to get to the QB and put pressure on Sam Ehlinger. You could say that they both have impressive wins against common opponents, as Texas beat Oklahoma on neutral field while Iowa State lost by 10, and Iowa State dominated West Virginia at home while Texas lost on a last second pass from Will Grier. Overall, I think Iowa State has been the better team, and I question what Texas has left after playing 6 straight games decided by 7 points or less. Now they have to play another high energy game against a physical team that is going to be relentless with their energy. I just don't know that they can match it especially when Iowa State will get RB David Montgomery with fresh legs in the second half.