Despite this line moving so much I still think there is value. I mentioned it earlier in the week at +2.5 as a lean in my podcast, but I'll still back the Gophers here at home as Northwestern has nothing to play for being that they clinched a spot to play in Indianapolis for the Big Ten Championship game. Northwestern has gone 6-1 in conference play, but have been outgained by 28 yards per game. They had 3 guys in the secondary out last week, and miraculously won at Iowa. They have been one of the luckiest teams this season.

Minnesota fired their defensive coordinator, and the defense played much better last week limiting Purdue to a season low 233 yards, in a 41-10 win. This young Minnesota team has played significantly better at home +15 points per game +89 yards per game. Northwestern, the last 4 games held to 296 yards per game, and Thorson has not looked great completing 52.8% of his passes. I think these teams are pretty even, but the situation heavily favors Minnesota. Also, I can't dive into too many stats, as Minnesota is just a different team than earlier in the season. The firing of Robb Smith could be the biggest impact, as he ran a very difficult scheme for a young defense. THe defense now as PJ Fleck has said, "sound, simple, fast." The "simple" defense for a young athletic defense is the big key, and a struggling Northwestern offense should have issues as they rank 76th in TO Margin.