Alabama -14.5 3.3% play
I'm not afraid of this historical point spread here, as this is the largest home dog role for a top 4 team ever, but... Alabama is a historically great team, that I get has not been challenged, but that is great material for Saban to feed his kids for 2 weeks. LSU, is also really not the 3rd best team in the country, and we just be honest about that? LSU ranks 92nd in yards per play on the season, and Joe Burrow's QB Rating ranks 108th. Burrow is not the type of player that can give Alabama's defense any kind of issues, and they have not been particularly good at protecting him ranking 78th in pass protection while Alabama is 18th at getting to the QB. Burrow averages 6.9 yards per attempt, 82nd, and he is only completing 53.8% of his passes and while he has 250 yards rushing the majority of that came on a couple big plays. Make no mistake about it he is not a mobile QB.
Alabama's defense in my opinion is under rated. I expect their best effort in this game. They really haven't had to play all year long, and going into this game they will have that feeling that they do. Nick Saban also great with 2 weeks to prepare and is the far better coach. If they get up big I think the lead only grows as they should have success running the ball against an LSU front that is without their best defensive player in Devin White for the first half, and they have been particularly bad against the run ranking 59th this year. They also have not faced a team that can throw and pass like Alabama, and I expect a 41-14 type of a final here.
