Iowa State 9-2 ATS in their last 11 as a dog, and they are a significant step up in competition for West Virginia. West Virginia is not #6 ranked team just like LSU was not #5 going on the road as a favorite a week ago and losing at Florida. This is the Big 12 version of that with Iowa State playing very well despite injuries at QB position Iowa State managed to upset Oklahoma State last week on the road. They also played Oklahoma, TCU, and Iowa to 10 pints or less.
Iowa State inserted mobile QB Brock Purdy and against a good defense in Oklahoma State he put up 400+ yards and 5 TD"s, 4 through the air. Iowa State's offense is very under rated in my opinion as they rank 83rd in yards per play, but have faced a tough schedule facing defenses ranked on average #36 in yards per play allowed. Here they face another good defense in West Virginia #25, but West Virginia has not played faced a top 35 team yet.
West Virginia's offense has dominated behind Will Grier, but look at the defenses they have faced. On average ranking 102nd yards per play allowed, 92nd average in QB rating defense, and on average they have faced a rushing defense ranking 99.5. The rushing defense is what really is a red flag, because it appears West Virginia is completely one dimensional on offense and that won't win on the road. They rank 73rd in yards per carry and they faced on average a 99.5 ranked defense. Here they face Iowa State's 13th ranked rushing defense. What does that mean?
Unless West Virginia throws early they are going to set themselves up on third and longs and Iowa State ranks 32nd in sack %. They can put pressure on the QB and force mistakes. West Virginia is 99th in TO Margin, and Grier turned the ball over 3 times inside the 30. Iowa State will be fine giving up the yards to West Virginia, but are stingy in the red zone allowing just 50% TD percentage. Last year they gave up a ton of yards, but held West Virginia to 20 points. This is a night game in Ames with a great home crowd looking for an upset before going into their bye.
