Boise State is a popular dog this week that I'd look to fade. Oklahoma State is a very well coached team under Mike Gundy and he has done a far better job recruiting here compared to Bryan Harsin at Boise State. On average over the last 4 years Oklahoma State has had a recruiting class that is 29 places ahead of Boise State.

Oklahoma State is not often a short favorite at home. Since 2008 when they are less than a TD favorite at home they are 9-3-1 ATS. When they are facing a non-conference opponent since 1985 they are 37-18-1 ATS as a home favorite and when that spread is under 10 points they are 15-2 ATS. The Big 12 has also dominated the Mountain West going 13-2 since 2010 while outscoring the Mountain West by 18 points per game. That includes Boise State losing as a favorite to Baylor 31-12 in a bowl game. The 2 wins came from TCU & Utah who are now playing in power 5 conferences.

Boise State is just getting a lot of hype while there is this thought that Oklahoma State is rebuilding. Oklahoma State has a senior at QB in Taylor Cornelius and a senior at RB in Justice Hill who can take it to the house on any play. Boise State looked great against the likes of Troy and Uconn, but they are about to see a top 10 passing offense.

Boise State has been a good dog cover on the road, but they really have not been scheduling these type of games the last few years facing only Virginia, Washington State & Oregon State the last two years who are from the worst of the Power 5 Conferences. This is a team that lost to Virginia as a 13 point favorite.