This is a ton of points when you consider that Ohio may just be the best defense that Western Michigan has faced all year. Ohio’s defense is legit especially up front where they rank 6th in the country in havoc rate with 40 sacks and 90 total tackles for loss. Western Michigan is facing a defense that can stop the run ranking #2 in yards per carry allowed and a defense that has held their last 9 opponents under their season points per game average.

Ohio will not be a sexy pick on Friday night, because of their last two games losing to Central Michigan and beating Akron 9-3, but they should get their senior QB back, and I like their ability to run the ball in this game and slow this game down. In fact both teams like to run over 55% of the time and Ohio just matches up a little better in the trenches. Don’t forget Ohio went on the road held Toledo to a season low in points and rushing yards in a victory as a 15 point favorite. While Western Michigan dominated Toledo on the scoreboard last week it was much closer and Toledo ran all over Western Michigan for more than 7 yards per carry.

Lastly, you have to factor in the intangible of pressure. There is a ton of pressure on Western Michigan to win this game and get into the Cotton Bowl. Also is PJ Fleck staying or is he going to jump to the Oregon job or another job? Those are also big question marks that can be distractions. At the end of the day we have seen how teams have done as big favorites in pressure spots and it has not been a winning formula ATS.

Where to find Freddy?