I like the Blue Raiders in this spot as Western Kentucky is struggling to get that win to get to a bowl game. It's no coincidence that they are 0-3 in their last 3 by running into a couple of quality teams that can pass the ball. All year they had faced just 1 team in the top 120 in passing QB rating. They faced 120, 85, 122, 123, 127, and 129. Sure their pass defense was going to look prolific and still is ranked 12th. It then faced 46, 61, 69 and got particularly exposed in the Vanderbilt game and again they will get exposed here tonight.

Middle Tennessee got Brent Stockstill back and this is his third game back so the rust is off. This is a balanced offense much more balanced than Western Kentucky. They protect and get to the QB better as well. With Stockstill they are a top 25 passing offense. Western Kentucky's pass defense is ranked 125th in sack rate. Giving Stockstill time is not a good thing as he should pick this defense apart on his way to scoring 30+.

For Western Kentucky, they average less than 3 yards per carry. They go up against a defense that can certainly stop the run. Middle Tennessee also ranks 47th in opposing QB rating. Western Kentcuky will get some yards in this one, but at the end of the day they can not protect their QB. White has been sacked 32 times this year and they rank 79th in sack % on drop backs. Middle Tennessee should be able to force them into some long third downs that they won't be able to convert. Middle Tennessee lost this 100 mile rivalry game by 1 point last year and 30 the year before. They want this one and I think they have the better overall team and coaching staff.