Notre Dame -3 3.3% Play
I think the Irish are well prepared for this game against Miami. Notre Dame has by far faced the tougher schedule. They have the 13th ranked offense from a yards per play perspective and have faced an average defense ranking 44th. They did struggle against Georgia, but Georgia was stout against the pass and run. Miami definitely seems to have some holes as we will talk about here having given up 200 yards rushing in 3 straight games. They faced 78th, 12th, and 93rd ranked rushing offenses and gave up 200+ in each game. Notre Dame ranks #1, and I know they don't rank highly passing the ball, but Winbush is definitely a threat in the passing game. I was thoroughly impressed when he faced NC State who you could argue has a better defense than Notre Dame.
Miami's defense has faced just 1 team in the top 50 in yards per play offense and they gave up 30 points. That was Toledo a team from the MAC. Overall they have faced an average opponent ranking 79th. Compare that with Notre Dame having faced an average opponent ranking 61st. Notre Dame has played well against the two top 20 offenses they have faced giving up just 20 points to Georgia, and 14 to USC who I realize was banged up in that game. Miami's offense could struggle here facing the #23rd ranked defense form a yards per play. Rozier just threw 3 interceptions against Virginia Tech who is over rated in their own right.
Notre Dame's defense has faced 4 good QB's from Wake Forest, Michigan State, Georgia, and NC State. They've allowed 6 TD's and 4 interceptions. They are +12 in TO margin and have advantages in the red zone, special teams, offensive and defensive line. I like Miami, and I like Mark Richt and the job he's doing there, but I think it's a bad match-up for them, and I think Notre Dame may just be this good. It's a short price based on what Miami did to an over rated Virginia Tech team that got crushed by Clemson and crushed in the stat sheet against West Virginia. Notre Dame's resume is much more impressive.
