Wake Forest had a 21-13 lead over Georgia Tech last week and ended up losing 38-24 in misleading fashion. I think they have an excellent shot at upsetting Louisville who is just off a big road victory at Florida State. They were lucky to be in that spot as Florida State fumbled with under 2 play while heading into the red zone. That gives us line value here.

Wake Forest is definitely better on offense this year and Louisville's defense is definitely worse. Wake is still strong on defense ranking 21st in yards per play allowed and are well coached under Dave Clawson. They have just 4 TO's on the year they play good fundamental defense and limit their mistakes with penalties. In last year's game they held a 12-3 lead at half time and a 12-10 lead in the 4th quarter before Lamar Jackson took over scoring the final 34 points in the 4th quarter to win 44-12.

Earlier in the year they hosted Florida State had a late lead and were tied 19-19 in the 4th quarter before giving up a TD with less than 1 to play to lose by 7. They actually outgained Florida State by 100 yards in that game. I would have this as a premium play and maybe even calling for the upset if I felt confident Wake could close games out. Nonetheless it's still a play I like here!