Jets +8 5.5% NFL POD
There has not been a more devalued team in NFL history than this years NY Jets and I am going to fade the idea that everyone is painting against this football team. I still think they will have an above average defense and with at total sitting around 40 there is clearly value on the Jets at +8. The Jets have a veteran QB, along with a veteran RB in Matt Forte who can take care of the ball score a little and let the defense do the rest. Also it's not like the Bills defense has great players on defense and they are transitioning to a new scheme after ranking 28th in the NFL at stopping the run a year ago.
On the flip side the Bills offense has QB Tyrod Taylor back, who is under concussion protocol but will start in this one, but this is an offense that ranked 14th in yards per play a year ago that in my opinion has not gotten better with the arrival of Rick Dennison as the offensive coordinator. Dennison who spent 2015 & 2016 with the Broncos had them ranked 26th in yards per play each year.
Yes, the home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Yes, the Bills are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 openers. However, the spread in this match up has not been above 3.5 since the Jets were favored by 9.5 late in the season in 2011. The fact is there is no reason one NFL team should be this big of a dog against an average football team. A team that has not been in the playoffs since 1999!
