Arkansas +3 -105 2.2% play

Arkansas is a tough team for me to back after last year with their blown leads, but I feel like they are the right side as a home dog. I donâ€Â™t understand the hype of TCU this was a team that barely beat Kansas on the road. Their QB Kenny Hill has gotten hype before and his 4-14 ATS record as a starter is something to take seriously. Hill on the road last year completed less than 60% of his passes for 7 TDâ€Â™s and 6 INTâ€Â™s. He faced the following pass defenses, 85, 52, 101, 66, and 43. Arkansas coming into the year are a much improved secondary we saw a drastic improvement last year with Paul Rhoads taking over the secondary, and now Rhoads is the defensive coordinator and this group returns 6 of their 8 guys.

Yes, backing Arkansas pains me they were a 7 point dog in their bowl game and blew a 24-0 lead and we did not cover. However, I feel they should be a small favorite in this spot at home with the better QB in Austin Allen. Allen will be playing behind an offensive line that should be better with 4 returning starters and I think he cuts down on the 15 interceptions he threw a year ago. TCUâ€Â™s defensive line lost their top 3 guys and have allowed 183 ypg rushing and 188 ypg the last 3. Thatâ€Â™s not typical of Gary Patersonâ€Â™s defenses at all and I think Arkansas should have success again after rushing for 180 a year ago because Allen is a threat to throw the ball. AT the end of the day we are getting an SEC team as a home dog against a Big 12 team with the better QB. Go Hogs!