Michigan again off to a fast start and now getting Top 10 considerations? I think that's a joke, but here they are now facing their in state rival on the road. Michigan is a classic team that dominates out of conference but in conference they struggle 5-23 ATS in their last 28 conf games. They are also 7-20 ATS in their last 27 vs. a winning team and this line suggests they'd be favorites on a neutral field which I feel is a joke considering how well Mich State's defense has played.
Mich State was +160 yards last year at Michigan and they foced Robinson into 3 interceptions that's going to be the key right there. Ya Mich State lost to Notre Dame and Michigan beat them, but Michigan had no business beating Notre Dame and really they were down double digits last week to an under rated Northwestern team. Denard Robinson had his way last week through the air but again he throws way too many turnovers and too many jump balls that he's gotten lucky with especially against Notre Dame. Robinson 9 interceptions on the year are among the worst in the nation and if he tries to take off and run Mich State is solid against the run ranked #3 nationally and they are tested a bit holding a very good Notre Dame running game to only 114 yards. Greg Jones is not a Spartan LB he's off playing in the NFL, but Mich St recruits well especially at LB and their defensive line will allow them to roam free. The standard run game won't work vs. Mich St not with Jerel Worthy anchoring a very good Dline. Now Michigan has been great in the red zone 22 of their 28 RZ tries have been TD's, but Michigan State has only allowed 3 TD in the red zone all year so they can force Michigan into field goal situations meanwhile I'm not sold on Michigan's alleged improved defense.
For one they have gotten lucky forcing 12 fumbles. Well Mich State takes care of the ball just 2 fumbles and only 4 total turnovers on the year so you can bet they will win the turnover battle on Saturday. Next Michigan has 11 sacks, but Mich State has allowed just 5 on the year. Kirk Cousins is a very composed QB and experienced vs. Michigan. Dan Persa just threw for 336 yards and Nwestern running game was able elude tackles and get into the end zone. Mich State with an extra week to prepare should be able to get the running game going last year Edwin Baker had 22 carries and 147 yards and he's still there last I checked so is Le'Veon Bell who had 7 carries and 78 yards. Michigan's run defense stats look good but they haven't faced any teams that can run beside San Diego State and Notre Dame which had Wood and Hillman both over 100 yards and 6 yards per carry combined.
We know Temple by now they are an aggressive defense that forces turnovers and a team without a QB or passing game but elite running game and great offensive line. The only way they can cover a spread like this is by forcing turnovers, but Buffalo has only turned the ball over 4 times all year. They were -8 turnover margin last year and sit at +3 this year and they've faced some good teams like Pitt, CT, and Tennessee already and they were in the Pitt game for a while and then they just knocked off Ohio on their home turf a week ago. The same Ohio team that beat Temple last year. Buffalo has a balanced attack, but they will run the ball more which keeps that clock ticking. Branden Oliver is averaging 113.2 yards per game on the ground right behind Temple's NFL prospect Bernard Pierce 115.3. The difference is Buffalo has a QB that can throw the ball with over 1200 yards this year. At the end of the day there are not enough possession for Temple to cover this spread and Buffalo is not as bad as their 42-0 loss to Temple last year.
