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Today Josh Johnson will go up against rookie Jordan Zimmerman and both pitchers are pitching well, but the difference is in the Marlins flat out dominating the Nationals. They will be going for their 10th win in a row over the Nationals here today. The Nationals have lost all 8 games this year vs. the Marlins seven of which have came by more than 1 run.
Zimmermann has pitched well of late, but he's on the road and during the day here. He has a 5.93 ERA away compared to 3.83 home and a 5.23 day compared to a 4.55 night. I look for him to struggle against a Marlins club that is starting to hit the ball a bit here now.
Josh Johnson on a huge bounce back start vs. a team he has owned in the past. He has a 4-0 career record with a 3.68ERA vs. the Nationals, but struggled last time out vs. the Nats. I think he will pitch a gem here today where he has a 1.94ERA. The Marlins are 11-2 the last 13 times Johnson has been a favorite and they are a big one here today! However, with the Nationals losing 82% of their road games by more than 1 run I see excellent value on the run line!
