75-34 (69.4%) +110.29 units of profit! (+$110,295)
We are going with the Rays as our Play of the week. I know the Red Sox have not lost since acquiring Victor Martinez but with Bay questionable tonight that should even things out and even if he starts I am fine as Garza has dominated the Red Sox for quite some time now while the opposite is true for Jon Lester against the Rays.
All you need to know here really is the Rays are dominant at home on their "turf" and the Red Sox have struggled whether it be against the Blue Jays, Twins, or Rays the Red Sox and Lester have not been the same as Boston is 12-27 in their last 39 turf games. While Lester is 0-7 last 7 starts on Turf. Red Sox are also 1-6 in his last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record. More on Lester as he has not been the same pitcher on the road with a 4.52 ERA while a 3.33 ERA at home. Lester who has two starts against the Rays this year has not pitched well and both games were at home he has gone 9.1 innings given up 13ER. The Rays at home are 9-3 in their last 12 home starts vs. LHP. Rays own a collective .313 average vs. Lester. Including Crawford .316, Bartlet .500, Longoria 5-12, Pena 6-22 with 3HR. Boston has hit no doubt about it, but what evens that out is what their bullpen showed in Baltimore. The Rays are hot right now and I think they will continue here at home.
More on Garza with the exception of Ellsbury who is 9-23 .391avg everyone else has struggled vs. Garza. Boston has a collective .213 avg against him. He's got 3 starts vs. Boston this year with a 1.69 ERA and a 2-0 record. Garza had 6 starts vs. the Red Sox last year and the Rays won 5 of 6 and he had a 3.34 ERA. May I also note that Garza is on 5 days rest while Lester on just 4. The Rays are actually 5-0 in his last 5 starts vs. Boston. As hot as Boston's bats have been they won't continue tonight. Although I can see Garza going 7 or 8 giving up 3 or 4 I see the Rays putting up at least 5 here at home on the turf.
