76-34 (69.1%) +114.68 units of profit! (+$114,680)
Some may think I'm taking this because of last nights loss and I'm a little mad the Marlins blew a 4-0 lead in the 8th, but not at all. I really like the pitching match up here today for several reasons.
Let's start with Lanan who relies on pin point control. He had two starts in early April against the Marlins and they hit him hard in the first start and he backed it up with a 6.1 IP 3H 1ER performance but gave up HR in each start. The Marlins are 17-8 in their last 25 road starts vs. LH starters and they will have the confidence of knowing that Lannan had his worst start against him earlier in the year. More importantly for me is the umpire behind the plate that makes this a pitching mismatch. Fieldin Culbreth not known to be finesse pitchers best friends and that is true for Lannan. In Lannan's two starts with Culbreth back there he has a 12.07 ERA over just 8.2 IP. It came in 2 starts in 2008 where Lannan went only 5.2IP giving up 9H and 6ER 3BB's against the Phillies and then 3IP 6H 5ER and 2BB against the Pirates. Look for the Marlins to have a good day especially on revenge here from last night.
VandenHurk will take the mound for the Marlins and has been solid in 3 starts this year going 17 innings iwth a 2.65 ERA. His problem has been his control, but he is off his best start yet against the Braves with 9K's and 1BB in 6IP. Hurk came off the DL earlier in the season after suffering elbow issues from pitching in the WBC and has proven himself in AAA where he had a 4-1 record with a 2.79ERA over 10 starts. Best of all his WHIP 0.97 and a 44:14 K:BB ratio in 51.2 innings pitched. Manager Gonzalez said he has brought his velocity down a bit to sacrifice for control and it has rewarded him. Nationals are 28-66 in their last 94 games vs. a RH starter and the Marlins are still 10-2 in their last 12 trips to Washington. Expect the Marlins to come out swinging when Lannan is forced by Culbreth to throw strikes. That will translate into runs!
