Any play 3 Dimes + that just misses my POD cut!
Insane Overall MLB run!
Going with the Red Sox here as Beckett vs. Garza is a pitching mismatch in my eyes in favor of the Rays. Beckett has struggled in his last three starts big time giving up 20 ER in his last three starts including 23 hits and 10 HR. It is a problem that can be quickly corrected for Beckett and I would not be shocked for him to turn it around here tonight, but that's easier than said against the Rays who have owned the Sox here as well as owned Beckett. Not to mention they have their best starter vs. Red Sox on the hill tonight in Matt Garza.
More on Beckett he has not pitched nearly as well on the road 4.10 ERA as home. He's got a few starts this year vs. TB which show a final line of 17.2 IP 18 H 1 HR 11 ER and 9 BB. His only start at TB he gave up 7 ER. Boston has been ripping the ball as of late, but they just came off a 10 game home stand where they hit considerably better peppering the green monster. On the road they are averaging just .246 vs. RHP .30 less than vs. LHP, and they are scoring 1.42 runs less per 9 innings than they do against LHP. The Red Sox are 13-29 in their last 42 on turf, 3-11 in their last 14 as dog including 1-9 as a road dog. Beckett is 3-8 in his last 11 on turf including a season ERA of 7.94 on turf.
Garza on the other hand has a 3.26 ERA here at home and is 9-3 in his last 12 on turf and 8-3 as a home favorite. Rays at home are actually an incredible 72-25 in their last 97 home games vs. RH starters. The Rays are 7-1 in his last 8 overall vs. the Red Sox. Garza has 4 starts this year vs. the Sox and the Rays are 3-1 where he has 28.2 IP giving up just 6 ER on 15 hits including 28 K's. At home vs. Boston this year he has a 1.27 ERA in two wins. He's coming off his 2nd worst start of the season and I expect him to rebound in a big way against the Sox. Just Ellsbury has an average over .300 vs. Garza as the Red Sox collectively have a .193 average.
