103-55 (65.2%) +119.49 units of profit! (+$119,499)
We have set this up so that if we win on the over we automatically profit! Also the 2-Dime play on the Twins will give you an automatic profit if they don't win by 1+ run.
What can you say the Metro Dome is going to be hopping tonight after last night with Favre's performance. If you don't think the dome will have some kind of a carry over effect from the Vikings game you are kidding yourself. Rick Porcello who has struggled on turf this year in 3 starts with a 6.60 ERA will go up against the Twins who have a .349 average in the dome against him. Porcello is just 20 years old and will make the biggest start of his career against the Twins in a very loud environment. He will have to contend with a Twins line up that is scorching hot, and Kubel has been the MVP down the stretch and he's 8-11 against Porcello and is coming off a game where he hit two three run home runs! Scott Baker goes for the Twins and although he has struggled against the Tigers this year I think he does enough to get the ball to the bullpen that has just been flat out dominant down the stretch. Let's go over the pitching match ups.
will go up against the Twins in what will be closer to a night game for him than a day game, but still technically a day game with a local start of 4:05pm. In fact Baker who has pitched worse during the day has all 4 of his starts vs. the Tigers this year during the day. Why might a pitcher struggle during the day? It's technically a shorter period of rest if you are coming off a night start in your last start. Along with that is the struggle to get mentally and physically ready to pitch earlier than you normally would. Baker threw 5 shut out innings in his last day start vs. the Tigers and being at home with a loud crowd behind him gives him the advantage. He's a veteran at 28 years old compared to the Tigers 20 year old rookie starter Rick Porcello. Despite the higher ERA this year at home of 4.55 to his 4.17 ERA away he has opponents hitting .13 points lower and he's walked 16 less batters and has allowed 5 less HR in 4 more innings pitched. So in reality he has pitched better at home which is why I think he gets the win here today. However the 6.75 ERA against the Tigers is concerning which is why I like the over. I think the Tigers get to him a little, but not nearly enough to compensate for the Twins bats and the advantage they have over Porcello. Tigers hitters are scoring significantly less runs per9 in their last 10 4.09 than the Twins are with 6.85! The Bullpen for the Twins has also been much better with a 2.34 ERA in their last 10. Get the ball to the bullpen will be the message to Baker. The Twins are 4-1 in day games vs. the Tigers at the Metro Dome and 6-2 overall. The Tigers have played poorly over a long period of time in Minnesota with a 28-61 record in their last 89 appearances. Baker has dominated three key members of the Tigers, Granderson/Polanco/Inge have are 23/111 for an average of .207 off Baker. This is a key match up and advantage for Baker.
He is the better pitcher in this match up by small margin, but pitching on the road in a playoff type game as a rookie. There is a reason teams usually put young pitchers in the bullpen when the playoffs start. Porcello seems like a tough kid that can get by, but the match up does not favor him. On turf this year he's got a 6.60 ERA, and the against the Twins in the dome they are hitting .349 off him. Twins collectively on the year have a .290 average so you can see the difference from home to away against Porcello. This will be the most challenging spot for him against a team that has just been dominating as of late against RHP... 20-6 in their last 26 games vs. RH starters.
Tigers are over 4-1 in Porcello's last 5 road starts, 4-1 in his last 5 following a quality start.
Twins are over 17-7-1 in their last 25 as favorites -151-200, and 19-6-1 in Baker's last 26 when opponents are coming off scoring 5+ runs in previous game.
I really think the Twins will win this game. They have all the momentum and are at home where they are extremely tough to beat. Tigers have given their lead up in the division all September, and the momentum that the Twins have in their own stadium will be just too much despite having what looks like the better pitcher. There is another dark cloud over Detroit with Miguel Cabrera issues with his wife and him being 3 times the legal limit in a domestic disturbance call. That to me just shows you that the Tigers best player is not focused on making the playoffs. It's okay to have a drink or two, but when you are coming up on the biggest game should you really be getting shit faced? They have nothing to celebrate and at the end of tonight they surely won't! In the end Porcello will pitch a decent game going 5 innings giving up 3 ER, but the Twins will really work the rookie and he'll throw too many pitches to go deeper. This game will be forced to get turned over to the bullpen something Leyland is always hesitant to do as is proof by letting Verlander to throw 120+ pitches countless times down the stretch. This bullpen has a 5.08 ERA in turf play! We'll see a tie game 3-3 through 5 innings and from their the Twins and their crowd take over in a final of 6-4 sending the Twins to the ultimate disappointment of losing to the Yankees in the ALDS.
