I'm going with Uconn here to be honest I'm fine taking it at 6, but when the line jumped up to 6.5 in some places I always have to take that 1/2 point for insurance I'll pay the 10 cents.
Now onto the game, Uconn is 4-5 and still wants to go bowling. This team has been very frustrated by tight losses this season. They have lost all 5 of their games by a total of 15 points. That's a total, and they were impressive in each one of them. Against Cinn, West Virginia and @ Pittsburgh they lost by 2, 4, and 3 points all three of these teams are better than Notre Dame. This will be the worst defense Uconn has faced all year the next closest is Baylor which Uconn beat @ Baylor 30-22 and we know how bad Baylor is.
Notre Dame's offense is a bit over rated as they have faced an average 67th ranked total offense, and I don't buy into it as their passing game is what moves the team and they have not faced a good passing defense all year. Uconn is not a good pass defense by any means, but they should be able to do enough offensively and defensively to be a factor in the 4th quarter and have a chance to win this game out right in my opinion. The closest defense comparable to Uconn that Notre Dame faced was Purdue which Notre Dame won 24-21 still would not be enough to cover the spread here. Uconn offensively closely mirrors Pitt, and USC in terms of ranks and Notre Dame gave up big numbers to those teams in losses.
Uconn should be able to run the ball with their 1-2 punch in Todman and Dixon both averaging more than 80 yards a game, but what many don't know is Uconn is a balanced offense for the first time in a long time. WR Marcus Easley has become a downfield playmaker and Zach Frazer the former Notre Dame QB will be highly motivated in this game.
Uconn is off a bye and has had the extra time to get healthy and prepare for this game so they can try to go bowling. Notre Dame is without another crictical part of this offense in TE Kyle Rudolph gone for the season.
If there were ever two teams that mirrored each other more in their rankings and the out comes of their game you tell me who they are. Both Indiana and Purdue are better than their records indicate. Indiana has faced a stronger schedule thus the lower rankings. They have faced both Penn State, Iowa State, Ohio State, and Wisconsin while Purdue has faced Mich St, Wisconsin, and Ohio State. No Penn State or Iowa yet on the conference schedule yet.
So what is the difference here? Well home field is a big advantage and the fact that Indiana is a dog I love it. This game should be pk if anything, but we have the dogs, and I love Indiana because Purdue has been plagued by turnovers all season long with 29. They are a league worst -14 in TO margin while Indiana is the opposite +11 this is probably the biggest difference between the two. As both teams lack a defense especially against the run the two are both dead last in the league in that category.
Not only does this team have the TO margin working for them, but they have revenge on their mind as they lost 62-10 a year ago. So they got home field, under dog, stronger schedule and revenge on their side tonight I'll take those odds any time.
