I was all over this team last week as one of my bigger plays of the year and if I believed in Game of the Weeks and Game of the Months or Years this one would be pretty much up there. I love this Rutgers team and the more I watch the more I am impressed with what they do and how they progress week to week. We saw it last year after a rough start when they averaged 13ppg through their first 6 games. They won their last 7 games straight up including their bowl game and averaged 43.3 ppg getting better and better each week. They closed the season 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games and this season has not been much different. They are 3-0 on the road this year with ATS wins as well by a margin of 11.5, 6.5 and 22 those are ATS margins not SU margins. Very impressive and I think it only increases from here.
I have some respect for Greg Schiano as he continues to motivate his team. The Scarlet Knights are bowl-eligible already, but he has them focused at the task at hand. They will have two days of extra preparation over the Syracuse Orangemen who have had a very disapointing season and don't have much to play for other than Sr. day. Points will be limited for Syracuse as they are averaging just 12ppg in the Big East. They will be facing the leading scoring defense and total defense of the Big East that yields just 15ppg. This team is peaking at the right time and their aren't many household names on the defense, but you'll hear guys like George Johnson and Alex Silvestro called alot along with Damaso Munoz. Rutgers is ranked 16th nationally and they will go up against the 109th ranked offense who is scoring which I mentioned last in the Big East and 106th in the nation that was against a 45th ranked defense opponent so maybe it's not as worse as it seems on paper, but in reality it will be worse on Saturday when they go up against Rutgers ranked 11th in the nation in points allowed. This defense should force Paulus into some mistakes as they are leading the nation with the best turnover ratio. They have forced 29 turnovers and have committed only 8. That's remarkable since they have a freshmen QB. That is bad news for a Syracuse defense that has forced at least one turnover in 9 of 10 games and the key for them to stick around in this game will be to force turnovers something I doubt they'll be able to do.
Rutgers has improved on offense and the early up and down Joe Martinek has started to become really productive and has back to back solid games. He'll have to make room to run against a 13th ranked rush defense, but note that they have faced an average 63rd rushing attack. Rutgers is much better than that in my opinion. The bigger key is Savage making big plays down field to Tim Brown a 1,000 yard receiver and freshmen Sanu another big time possesion and physical receiver. Syracuse' seconday has given up 21 TD passes and is 116th nationally in pass efficiency defense look out! Rutgers has become a very balanced offense and their season ranks are no indication on how good this team is.
If you are not convinced I don't blame you on paper Rutgers ranked 86th in overall offense, but they score points ranked 46th and they will continue to put up 20 and 30 point totals something Syracuse can not compete with here. There have been three similar opponents for Syracuse in terms of the defense Rutgers possesses. Those are Penn State, South Florida and Pitt and Syracuse put up totals of 7, 20 and 10 in those games. In similar games against South Florida both teams played them at home. Rutgers won 31-0 and out gained them +195 yards while Syracuse lost 20-34 and out gained +11. Both schools played @ Pitt and both lost, but Rutgers was competitive losing by a TD and -90 yards, while Syracuse lost 10-37 -196 yards.
