I'm going with BG here today as they are clearly the better team and with a win most likely will get a shot at a bowl game at 7-5. Toledo's defense is simply not good enough and has struggled wtih teams that can pass the ball. Bowling Green has the best passing game in the MAC, and the next closest opponent that Toledo has faced was Western Michigan who put up 58 points on this defense, and Toledo was home in that game. Western Mich who has the 103rd ranked defense is not a team that can stop the passing game like Bowling green ranked 25th in the nation can. If BG gets up early Toledo will have no shot in this one.
The closest defenses that Bowling Green has faced was Troy Week 1 where they won 31-14 and Troy actually has a better passing game than Toledo. Then Ball State which has a better defense but worse offense with a win 31-17. Both times they put up the points and were able to contain a passing attack. Look at the common opponent of Miami OH on the road where Bowling Green won 35-14 and Toledo lost 24-31. So again another thing to look at in this match up but what it comes down to his Bowling Green's Tyler Sheehan and Freddie Barnes.
Barnes leads the nation in receptions, yards, and Td catches and still has much to prove. This will be the worst defense that Bowling Green has faced all year long and I look for them to get it in the end zone early and often here today. Bowling Green has faced better offenses ranked an average 61 this year while Toledo has faced an average team ranked 83rd in total offense and their defense is significantly worse. So why is this line just a TD? It's because Toledo is more balanced on offense and Bowling Green can't seem to stop the running game, ranked 106th in the nation. See I feel comfortable laying the points and the reason why is this team can get out on top in a hurry and they don't turn the ball over Sheehan just 6 interceptions. Probably the biggest reason was Bowling Green's MAC leading 3rd down conversion defense where the offense they face is successful just 34.6% of the time. They also are 4th in the conference in red zone defense two important ingredients to back a team ATS especially a favorite!
