I do not think the Stags will be able to guard Ubiles. The line is set at -5 because Fairfield is home, but they do not play on campus they play a couple towns over at an arena. It's hardly home court advantage as it does not have a college feel with not many people going to the game in a big arena. It's probably the reason why Fairfield is 17-39-2 ATS in their last 58 home games.
Siena is 6-0 in the conference while Fairfield is 5-1 and the difference is much bigger. Fairfield's loss in conference play came to Niagra by 9 points while Siena crushed Niagra by 18 points. The difference is clear in conference play Siena has dominated going 7-2 ATS in their last 9 and outscoring their opponents by an average 16 ppg this year. Fairfield is out scoring their opponents +3.5 ppg this season in conference.
Some of the biggest differences are defense mainly. Siena will pressure and Fairfield will turn the ball over. Fairfield is giving the ball up 15.8 times a game while Siena averages 9.2 steals a game and forces 15.5 turnovers. Siena will also enjoy a rebounding advantage as well as better defense and offense from all areas. There haven't been many close games in this series and the road team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Don't read into Fairfield's 12-4 record too much. They are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 as a home dog .5-6.5.
