Usc is ready to play this game and they are 8-3 at home while Cal is 3-4 on the road. This is an impotant game for both, but Cal has a big game on deck with UCLA which they lost in OT earlier in the year. This will be a revenge game for the Trojans as they lost by 8 points @ Cal earlier in January. In that game they shot just 44.8% from the field, but more importantly they gave up 46.8% to the Bears. At home they play much tougher defense giving up 35.2% from the field and that will be the different in the game along with rebounding and FT attempts.
In the first match up the Bears enjoyed +19 FT attempts part of why some home teams are so good are the number of times they get to the FT line over their opponent. Look for Cal to still get there, but I don't think they will shoot 87% when they do neither will they have a +19 attempt advantage as USC is getting 4.2 more attempts at home over their opponents.
In the first match up USC was -2 rebounds and at home they are +8.4 while Cal is -2.4 and even worse -2.7 offensive rebound. Cal just hasn't played well on the road and USC has the defense to really give Cal problems as they did from the perimeter in the first match up.
I like that USC is coming into this game hungry off two disappointing road loses. The last time they were at home they beat arguably the best team in the conference in Washington by 16 points. Washington is a team that at home beat up on Cal by 15 points. I think USC gets the call here as they were looking solid just a few games ago before they lost on the road to both Oregon clubs as favorites. Now back at home and I believe they will rally together.
Cal is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. teams with a winning home record above 60%. They are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 as an under dog and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings with the Trojans. Also note that they have a look ahead game against the UCLA bruins a team they should have beat but lost to in OT. USC meanwhile has the revenge and home court as well as the defense to prevail in this one. They are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 vs. Pac-10 and 37-15 ATS in their last 53 following an ATS loss.
