I see a ton of value here with Milwaukee being an under dog. First of all the Pirates are on quite the run, but the All Star break sure does not help any momentum. This team still can't hit and their defense is one of the worst in the majors ranking 26th. They will have the better pitcher on the mound here in Francisco Liriano, but he's had bad outings at Miller Park posting a 6.75 ERA over the last 3 years. He's had his share of struggles with a .824 OPS against these hitters and unlike his opponent he has struggled more during night starts than day starts and he's on shorter rest than Jimmy Nelson.
Nelson is on 5+ days rest has had excellent success against the Pirates and during night games, but why I really like him for this start is the fact that he has been lights out on extra rest. In 5 starts on 5 or more days rest he posts a 1.56 ERA. He's been getting better and better and he posts an elite 11% swing and miss rate. He's 2-1 with a 1.00 ERA in 3 starts vs. the Pirates this season. I see no reason why it should change.
