SMU has really started to play some great basketball beating two conference opponents at home in Memphis and Central Florida. They really have been great in conference play despite their 4-4 record. They have a close loss to UAB by 1 and Tulsa by 7. Tonight they will play UTEP for the second time this year after losing by 4 in the first match up. These two teams have been pretty close especially when they went up against each other. The difference @ UTEP was FT shots and % and Turnovers. In a close game where Utep were identical in three point % and field goal % and rebounds the difference came at the line and on defense. UTEP had a +2 turnover margin and got to the FT line +3 more times. They uncharacteristically shot 10/11 from the line where they are just 66.7% on the year while SMU shot just 4-8 where they are shooting 75% this year in conference play. Luckily for SMU they hold a +7.9 FTA advantage at home and UTEP holds a -8.4 FTA on the road. The turnovers are lowered at home and higher on the road for UTEP at -2 turnover margin so the differences are there for SMU to steal this game against the conference leading team. SMU continues to be over looked in the conference as they are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 conference games. Teh dog in this match up is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 and Utep is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 as a favorite. I simply feel that these two teams are two close together that home court is enough to push it in favor of a home dog. Add in that the line movement is suspicious to me as they opened up at +4 with 19% of the public on SMU they moved the opposite way down to a +3.5 dog.
