This is a typical home small favorite play on a team that would not normally be a favorite. St. Mary's is as good as they come in the West Coast conference but the only thing separating these two teams is their first game between each other where Portland lost by 5 on the road where they don't play nearly as well. Both teams lost to Gonzaga twice and have won all other conference games so this is a huge game for Portland to prove they belong. St. Mary's is coming off a blow out loss against Gonzaga and are very emotional because they were thinking conference championship but now Gonzaga has two wins over them. In the first match up the difference was three point shooting and FTA and FT%. St. Mary's controlled both and won the game by 5. Portland however was +4 in rebound margin and +5 offensive rebounds but -4 turnover margin. These are all things that can change when they go home here tonight.
IF you look at the conference stats these two are very close together in ever statistical category. Portland outscored opponents by 9.1 while St. Mary's 8.7. The difference seems to be that Portland can create turnovers and their defense is a little better which was proven as they held Gonzaga at 50% or under 50% from the field in both match ups while St. Mary's gave up 58.7% and 54.2% from the field.
Portland was +5 dogs here last year despite St. Mary's playing without Patty Mills. Vegas still felt they were 5 point favorites, but Portland torched St. Mary's by 20+ points. I think we could see some what of a similar result here tonight. Portland rebounds and gets to the FT line more times at home than on the road and that could be the difference so long as they play defense on the perimeter against Zaga and they don't get hot! I think Portland puts up close to 80 in a 5+ point victory.
