Grizzlies are in the playoff mix, as are the Bobcats so this game is much more important than it normally would be. The Grizzlies have been great at home this year except for late with 5 straight home losses. Overall they are still 18-11 and they are going up against the Bobcats who just can't score on the road and will be in big trouble in Memphis tonight playing their 4th road game in 7 days. Memphis only lost 5 straight home games because they have played some tough competition in the Lakers, Heat, Suns, Hawks, and Rockets over the 5 game span. The Bobcats are a bad road team and especially when they have to play the West conference as they are 14-29-3 ATS in their last 46 games vs. the NBA Southwest. They are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 as a road dog .5 to 4.5 and they are beat up on their front line with Mohammed likely playing, but Tyson Chandler is doubtful. That really hurts them as it leaves Wallace alongside Tyrus Thomas to handle the tough front court of Memphis in Gay, Randolph, and Marc Gasol who is quickly becoming a star like his brother.
Tyrus Thomas is the spark in the front court that Charlotte needs, but over his career he has struggled against the Grizzlies and his athleticism will not help him tonight as he is shooting just 28.6% from the field against this team. These two play earlier in the year and the Grizzlies lost by 2 points despite having a 13 point lead in the 2nd quarter. They basically got out played shooting wise, got to the ft line less had a -2 rebound margin and turned the ball over 4 times more. These are all things they do significantly better at home in fact they are +3.1 FTA, +3.7 rebound and +.3 turnovers. The same can be said about Charlotte in playing worse. The fact that Memphis played that poorly and still only lost by 2 points on the road makes this a confident play for me today.
Grizzlies are 10-4-1 ATS on 1 day rest and have dominated the East going 24-9-1 ATS in their last 34 games. These two teams are in the same position in regards to the playoffs and similar records but the West is much more challenging to contend in than the East. Add in my other fact I like and the refs combined are 17-11 ATS in favor of home favorites .5-4.5.
The Bulls are very nice team don't get me wrong at all, but I think Vegas is over valuing them here based on their recent success offensively. The Bulls in their last 7 wins though have not played anyone worth comparing to the Blazers as they have played the Knicks twice, Twolves, 76ers, Pacers twice, and the Heat. All of those teams are below .500. The Blazers on the other hand have actually been pretty good on the road this year going 15-13 and with Brandon Roy back in the lineup I think they should be able to beat the Bulls because they actually play defense something the Bulls have not been used to recently.
