Penn State here is getting too many points. Partly to do with the fact that they lost at home by 11 to Michigan State. However, a closer look and if Penn State can keep Michigan State off the offensive glass they would have had a chance to win that game. Penn State is 3-3 in their last 6 conference games out scoring opponents by a combined 2ppg. They now stand at 3-14 in the conference but are playing solid ball.
Michigan State is off a big win at Purdue and may be looking ahead to their next game which will be Sr. Day on Saturday. Penn State has not been all that bad on the road going 3-7 but only getting out scored by -3.5 ppg. While Michigan State has blown teams out of their own building out scoring opp by 12.7ppg they have not been doing much of it lately. In their last 5 games with an RPI average opponent of 91.6 Mich St. has outscored opponents +3ppg. Penn State in their last 5 games have an average RPI opponent of 78.8 and they are also +3. Penn St. stayed within this number both times against a much more talented Ohio State team, and given that this won't be Sr. night I can see Penn State hanging in there late.
I wanted this to be a larger play, but everyone and their mothers are on Richmond here today. The thing that worries me about Dayton is they are coming off a great offensive outing, and they already have a major rebounding edge over Richmond. Richmond is coming off a loss and Dayton scored 98 in their last game and I think the combination has given us a nice line at -3.5 for a team in Richmond that is 6-2 against the top 55 RPI this year including wins against Missouri, Florida and Miss State to name a few. They are out scoring opponents at home by 14.6 points. They get it doen by forcing turnovers because they are not a good rebounding team at -2.5 and -2.8 offensive at home. Dayton is +9.2 and +4.5 on the road so that is something to worry about here. I think the pressure defense that Richmond plays will offset this as Richmond is forcing +7.5 turnovers while Dayton stands at -3 on the road. Dayton's stats may be skewed a little bit because they are 2-5 on the road in conference play and in the losses they were outscored -3.6 points. Looking at their away stats it looks much better than it really is in my opinion. I bet Richmond on Sr. night comes with a huge effort and wins this game by 5+.
