I love this play and it will be just my 41st 4.5 Dime play ever, which goes back a little over a year now. Through my first 40 4.5 Dime plays I am winnign 62.5% of the time for a record of 25-15 ATS. I like the NBA play here as the public still loves the Jazz which I can't blame them they are 40-21-3 ATS on the season, but the Bucks stand even better with an ATS record of 41-21-1 ATS. They are also just as hot winning 13 of their last 16 games. They'll have the extra day of rest here with 2 days which they are 9-4 ATS. Bucks are 21-9 at home and they just beat the Celtics and Cavs here. Now this will be the most challenging of the three, but Utah is playing their 3rd road game in 4 days. It won't be a picnic for the Jazz whose legs have got to be getting just a little heavy here.
Jazz have been scoring machines in their last five averaging 45.6% from down town, but they will run into a very stout defensive unit that can score with Bogut 17.4/11.4 last 11 games, John Salmons who has really taken on the perfect role with this team Delfino who hit up the Jazz for 28pts last time or the very talented rookie Brandon Jennings. It's crazy to say the Bucks are still flying under the radar but they are. And with the Bucks playing the Pacers on Sunday at home in the next game and the Jazz going to visit the Thunder whom are a conference opponent and both in play off contention I think the Jazz may look past this game. The Bucks are 21-7-1 ATS in their Last 29 games favored .5-5.5. The line has moved from opening at pk to -1 in some places despite 61% of the public being on the Jazz.
Another game I love. Look past the Lakers recent struggles and well that's why we got a nice line. You almost thought they'd be under dogs the way they have been playing, but with Channing Frye out tonight on suspension and Barbosa with an injury the Suns won't be as deep as they normally are. The Suns actually will be on a weird schedule here coming off 5 days rest. A little rust might hit possibly as this team is 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 on 3 or more days of rest.
Now the Lakers lost here earlier in the year, but again as I mentioned two injuries for the Suns and add in the fact that the Lakers really want to make a statement here. You got guys like Artest and Kobe calling their efforts "garbage" and that they need to pick up the defense. Also the Lakers have nothing up in front that is going to challenge them like this game and they'll likely need it for their confidence. Warriors, Kings Twolves, and Wizards are up next on the schedule. The Lakers have lost their last 4 road games, but again I just feel strongly that the Lakers who are on 2 days rest will make a statement tonight.
