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It is not often that you get the Giants in a pennant race at home as an underdog, but here we go and I did fade the Cardinals the other night and lost, but I will fade them again here as this is a much more challenging road trip playing at San Francisco. The Cardinals are favorites, because of Michael Wacha on the mound and his 2.80 ERA, but his raw stats just do not support that type of an ERA. In fact his xERA states it should be a run higher, and he's not nearly as dominant on the road or during night starts. Wacha has largely benefited from a 92% strand rate. Nobody is that good. I think he's been a bit lucky like the rest of the Cardinals.
The Giants will start Mike Leake who will benefit a ton from the move to San Francisco. He also already has 2 great starts against the Cardinals when he was with the Reds this year pitching 16 innings and allowing 2 ER. His surface stats just do not look nearly as great as Wacha, but the Giants are playing great especially at home going 20-6 in their last 26 home games. and 16-5 when facing a RH starter.
