I actually love this play, because these lines have moved so far the other way from the opening line that we have tremendous value here. It seriously feels like a 10 point teaser as the total has jumped from 39 to 44, and the spread which opened at 14 has dropped down as far as -6.5 in some places. Naturally we want to get off some key numbers and we certainly achieve that here with this teaser.
Temple has 10 guys returning on a defense that was ranked 18th in yards per play, while Penn State's defense ranked 3rd, albeit against a tougher schedule out of the Big 10. Both offenses will still have major issues and concerns in the trenches, and I see this game very low scoring especially in the first half as each team feels each other out. Penn State ranked 120th in yards per play while Temple ranked 115th. Neither team is going to try to light up the scoreboard and this should be a very well played defensive battle from two schools in PA. In the end this Penn State team is well coached by James Franklin, and they sure as hell don't want to be the team that breaks the 31 straight wins over Temple. They have had to hear a lot about Temple's potential and returning players, but at the end of the day they just have more talent on offense.
I'm not sure Temple will be able to move the ball much, and both teams were dominating in the red zone on defense (allowed less than 45% TD percentage), and struggled on offense (less than 50% TD% success). So we should see a few field goals which will give Temple a chance to cover the overall spread, but keep this under the total. Penn State will rely on their key offensive play makers in the second half to keep drives alive and win this game. I expect RB Akeel Lynch, WR DaeSean Hamilton, and TE Kyle Carter all to make contributions.
